Comment by lazide
8 hours ago
Germany and their out of control energy costs (while still only being at best 1/5 of the way there if you count things like thermal heat), are a good example.
California has a dramatically easier climate, and is similarly struggling - without even taking into account goods shipping/transportation, thermal heat in the less nice climate zones, etc.
California might have a chance of getting to actual net zero without completely breaking the bank. But it’s not obvious it will. Germany is an order of magnitude harder.
Renewable electricity in Germany is already at over 50% per year and climbing steadily, but heating, mobility, land/resource/artificial fertilizer use, pollution and circular economy are still lagging (esp. accounting for the fact we're externalizing some of those by cross-border trade).
I guess we're trying much harder than most, but it's expensive, as you said, and politicians have become very careful to push things further. That said, I do think it's totally feasible in theory, it's just there's a lot of powerful bad actors out there throwing wrenches in the works.
The challenge is with the remainder, which is actually a much bigger problem.
Thermal heating for example, even using heat pumps, will require more than 5x the existing electrical grids peak energy capacity - just on its own. I’ve done the math several times, it’s staggering.
And it will do it during typically minimal insolation times.
Germany has made good progress, don’t get me wrong, but it highlights just how hard of a problem this really is.
W.r.t. heating did you also consider the effects of increasing local production as well as transferability and variability of load (e.g. requiring larger heat pumps and other "steuerbare Verbrauchseinrichtungen" to be "adjustable", which Germany does)
2 replies →
The US has flipped. Forget Net-Zero. It's Net-Positive, how can we get more CO2.
Like the movie The Arrival (1996)
How can we burn more coal, more gas.
Yup, it’s like when someone ‘tries to diet’, can’t handle it anymore, and then goes on a crazy binge.
I figure we’ve got at least a year or two before we start puking all over the place. Maybe less though!
Fun times, eh?