Comment by counters

You're 100% correct, but there's a subtlety in what the commenter is talking about.

Yes, _in aggregate_, forecasts are objectively, quantifiably better in 2025 than they were in 2005 let alone 1985. But any given, specific forecast may have unique and egregious failure modes. Look no further than the GFS' complete inability to lock on to the forecast track for Hurricane Melissa a month ago. This is dramatically compounded when you look at mesoscale forecast, where higher spatial resolution is a liability that leads to double-penalty errors (e.g. setting up a mesoscale snow squall band just slightly south of where it actually develops).

And keep in mind that the benchmarks shared from this model product are evaluating an ensemble mean, which further confounds things. Even if the ensemble mean is well-calibrated and accurate, there can be critical spread from the ensemble members themselves.