Comment by tylervigen
20 hours ago
It's the subtitle of the article they linked to.
But to expand: the US flagship forecast model just had its worst year predicting hurricanes since 2005. The trend of errors over the last few years hasn't been great.
More objectively it reads as if none of the models performed well outside of 24 hours with a significant uptick in inaccuracy after 72 hours.
I disagree with your logic. Increased mean error 72 hours out (vs 24 hours out) is not an indication that GFS is getting worse over time. At that scale it’s obviously getting better over time; 24 hours out is further in the future than 72 hours out.
However, an increase in the mean error at the same time out year over year (or between 2005 and 2025) is an indication of an issue, and that’s what we see.