Comment by masklinn
4 hours ago
The preliminary report mentions fatigue cracks on both sides of the aft lug, and one side of the forward lug, with the other showing no trace of fatigue, only overstress.
From this it seems like the aft lug was way fucked, and the forward lug was hanging on for dear life, until it could not.
Yes, that's exactly how I read it. The aft lug was the first to go, the forward lug shows signs of stress so it held on longer.
I don't think they're going to be skimpy on the metallurgy report so looking forward to the analysis of the mirror parts on the other wing. Those will tell without a doubt whether it was maintenance related or age related fatigue. Right now I would bet on the latter but the former could also still be a factor, for instance, that bearing might not have had enough lubricant.