Comment by sarchertech
3 months ago
Well a lot of times these “businesses” were sold to existing employees or family members who were going to run it themselves and it usually wasn’t for a huge multiple.
In many cases they weren’t sold at all just passed down to heirs. The differentiator is that PE has figured out that they can offer enough to bypass the traditional methods of business continuation.
I would frame it differently. Due to advances in communication and automation with the use of software, business owners can market the business to a far larger group of buyers, and business buyers can buy from a much larger pool of businesses.
Everybody likes seeing those 10%+ annual returns in their 401K (or their local government's taxpayer funded defined benefit pension plan), but no one likes how the sausage is made.
Most PE roll ups are not in your 401k - that’s what private equity means.
While some may eventually find enough success to IPO and subsequently enter a big index, the past few decades of VOO / buy-the-market growth owes far more to tech stocks than what’s being discussed here.
There are a few big ones like Blackstone/KKR/Goldman, but the point is all these investors have to beat SP500 for taking on the risk, and so if SP500 is getting 10% for no risk, then the only way the PE deals make sense is if over leverage and it inevitably results in changes that adversely affect customers, for any business that can’t scale with technology.
Most of the businesses people are complaining about are inherently local. Doctors, dentists, sports teams, plumbers, electricians.
When PE buys them in the majority of cases they continue to market them like local business and in most cases they go out of their way to lake them look like local businesses.
What you’re talking about happened decades ago when Walmart, McDonalds etc… ran a huge chunk of the mom and pops out of business. This is the next round where they go after businesses that don’t benefit as much from nation wide advertising and branding.
People don’t tend to pick their dentist based on nationwide advertising/brand recognition.