Comment by mmooss
4 days ago
The HPS site contradicts Rogan's claim (as far as I understand Rogan's claim); it's written by an expert in this field:
I agree that 91 cancers of 220 cast members sounds like a lot. It suggests a cancer rate of 91/200 × 100 = 41.3%. But is that abnormally high? Statistics on cancer occurrence in the United States suggest that the lifetime risk of cancer for males is about 39.7% and 36.7% for females, not greatly different than the rates among the cast. As we mature, the odds of dying of cancer increase from about 25% to 50%. Whenever a cancer survey is made among a small group (say, 100 persons or less), there are variations in the observed cancer rates, either larger or smaller. Moreover, it has also been reported that many cast members were heavy smokers, increasing their risk over the average. I believe that given the available information, there is no compelling evidence that the cancer rate among the cast was higher than national rates.
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