Comment by threethirtytwo
2 days ago
Many reasons why. The probability is based on many many many factors. What you mentioned is just a fraction of the factors.
If we do ever reach that distance again it will be even less likely we do it for a third time.
I'm pretty bearish on human interstellar travel or even long-term settlement within our solar system but I wouldn't be so pessimistic on unmanned probes. The technical hurdles seem likely to be surmountable given decades or centuries. Economic growth is likely to continue so relative cost will continue to drop.
Absent a general decline in the capacity of our civilization the main hurdle I see is that the cost is paid by people who will not live to see the results of it but I don't think that rules it out, I'd certainly contribute to something like that.
What are some of the other factors you are thinking of?
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This is reflexive pessimism with no substance. You're not articulating a set of particular challenges that need to be navigated/overcome, which could provide a roadmap for a productive discussion; it's just doomposting/demoralization that contributes nothing.
I don't want to introduce 50 tangential branches to argue about with no end in sight.
It's not pessimism, it's reality. Think about how unlikely it is. Humanity had one stretch where we reached for the stars and that stretch ended and by sheer luck some crazy guy made it cheap. What happens when he's gone? Will it happen again? Most likely: no. In your lifetime? Even Less likely.