Comment by refulgentis
3 days ago
I’m sad the mid to late 2010s alt reality era has come for HN the last 6 months, after 16 years here.
This was my last respite for intellectual argumentation.
Now, every day there’s multiple stories where you have to be caught up on this cinematic universe where AI is fake and doesn’t work and no one uses it and anyone who does is a grifter and or amateur and or embarrassing and any data centers they build will be a waste and they’re probably not even being built and OpenAI is JUST like pets.com so this is basically the web bubble from 1999…so therefore, $X! (In this case, X = RAM supply shortage is fake and actually just coordinated price gouging)
As my MD friend noted wisely a couple weeks ago: it’s noteworthy how this became a culture after LLMs became ubiquitous and user friendly. It was tons of fun and happy times when we were going to reduce # of radiologists, not software engineers.
US gov wouldn't let AI bubble pop, the amount of money in circulation would make the US set back 5+ years and potentially into great depression
the aftermath for tax payer and your 401k would be devastating
Not saying that you're wrong, but of course if there is a real AI bubble, then "not letting it pop" only escalates the damage when it does eventually pop. The best outcome all-around is for the market to form accurate expectations quite promptly about the real potential and capabilities of AI, regardless of the immediate consequences.
My own wild guess is that this spike in RAM and storage costs is more of a potential drag on the tech sector as a whole than AI companies specifically. Maybe we'll see some systems being reengineered to cut the waste and the technical debt throughout and be a bit leaner and meaner, since that will be making a real difference to the bottom line.
or there is third way, AI company would achieve "near AGI" and "only" eliminated 80% job market