← Back to context

Comment by abdullahkhalids

4 months ago

I would encourage people to go look at satellite view of random "rich" neighbourhoods in Pakistan, and note how many solar panels there are on rooftops. Here is the first one I scrolled to in Lahore [1], and one in Karachi [2]

Pakistan's grid prices tripled or more since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, because the extremely mismanaged and poorly designed electricity system+economy could not handle the energy price shock. This spiraled into rich people just buying rooftop solar systems, which exacerbated the grid problems even more.

[1] https://www.google.com/maps/@31.3611237,74.2493456,357m/data...

[2] https://www.google.com/maps/@24.8014179,67.0460688,415m/data...

According to this interview [1] and a recent Economist podcast blackouts were a huge driver of the decision of those that could afford it to go for solar and batteries. Now the utilities are in a death spiral. Customers disconnect, prices rise, more incentive to go for solar and storage as prices continue to fall while price of unreliable grid energy rises.

Chances are this spiral can happen everywhere, not just where supply is unreliable.

[1] https://www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-solar-boom

Price of Chinese PV panels and inverters and batteries have dropped so much and there has been financing schemes available where you get the installation for free and pay per usage cheaper than what the utility company charges and it is more realiable.

Did whoever named those streets have a stroke?

20, 23, 25, 27, 28, MDR 7, 32, 33, no name at all, 39, 40

And they're not even unique...they recycle them a kilometer further. WAT

  • It appears that the recycled street numbers each appear on different blocks.

    Street 6, for instance: I've found it twice so far.

    But they're still distinct, in that one Street 6 is within Block M 3 B, and another is within Block M 7.

    Which appears to suggest that blocks are more important at identifying an address than a street name is, and if that's the case then that works just fine.

    And indeed, a distinct address appears to be something like this: Plot 15, Block M 7 Lake City, Lahore, Pakistan. Plug that into Google Maps and you'll see what I'm seeing (and note that the string doesn't include a street name at all).

    It does seem weird to my wee little Ohio-trained brain to identify a building by what block it is on more than the street it is facing, but then: Canadian post codes and Hungarian addresses also look weird to me, and also work fine in the places where they're used.

    • That's correct. In Pakistan, typically cities are broken up into housing societies. Each society is broken up into sectors/blocks, which are typically indexed by the alphabet(A, B, C, ...), but occasionally, one will see block M7 or sector B2 etc. In each such sector, each house has a unique numbered address.

      Some larger societies are first broken up into "phases" and then into sectors/blocks.

      Street numbers are typically not required in an address, but are often provided as helpful guidance.

      Not a great system, but still better than Calgary's system (where I studied), which might be the worst system I have ever seen. You can't navigate at all without a map.

      8 replies →

    • In Costa Rica, they don't even use street names. For instance, "50 meters down the old store, with a green door" is a valid address.

  • You have an inbuilt assumption about the purpose of a street name. Compare it with addresses in Japan [1], where some streets don't even have names. I don't know anything about Pakistan, but i wouldn't be surprised if the street name is solely to differentiate within some small geographic area. Looking at street view[2] from a nearby real estate development supports this

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_addressing_system

    [2] https://maps.app.goo.gl/sfoKSP5yRU41yS8w5

    • This was a bit painful for me when I first moved to Tokyo, since the building I was supposed to move into was newly build, and not on Google Maps yet. I had to ask a very nice old lady where 19番15号 was supposed to be, and it took 20 minutes of us searching to find the place.

      First thing I did upon finding it was to add it to the map lol

> rich people just buying rooftop solar systems, which exacerbated the grid problems even more.

how it exacerbated problems exactly?..

  • I'm guessing: fewer people buying from the power companies/grid => the fixed costs of these companies are pushed onto the poorer customers, who already couldn't afford much.

    • This is correct.

      But there is a bit more. Almost all power plants in Pakistan are built with state-backed dollar-denominated loans (reason govt incompetence+corruption). This means if grid demand goes down, power plants don't go out of business like they would in a market based system. Instead, they keep collecting dollar-denominated interest paid by the state, even if they produce zero power.

      The state mitigates this by increasing electricity prices (in rupees). I have forgotten how this helps.

      21 replies →

    • its easily fixable, utility company can charge fee for fixed cost those who connected to the grid, and if all rich decided to disconnect, then they disconnect neighborhood eliminating fixed cost.

  • Previously, pretty much everyone (not just 'rich people', although, well, 'rich' is relative here, of course...) had diesel generators, which were not connected to the grid, since that would be seriously expensive, plus syncing would be pretty much impossible anyway.

    With solar, you can feed back into the grid much more easily, to the point that this is the default. This sort-of doubles the load on the grid (not exactly, but you get the idea), since both 'consumption' and 'production' need to cross the same wires.

    This is a problem even in, like, Germany, where the grid operator can send a "kill signal" to local solar inverters to shut down. In Pakistan, I can't even imagine...

  • The following isn't a grid problem (more of a demand issue), but maybe they're referring to this:

    > But 45 percent of Pakistanis live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, putting solar panel systems well beyond their reach. The pool of customers for the national grid has gotten smaller and poorer, and the costs of financing old coal-powered plants have increasingly been passed on to those who can least afford it. [1]

    1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-pakistan-s-solar-en...

  • I read that Pakistan told Qatar to sell off 24 containers of LNG next year. And there are abusive penalty clauses that get triggered when you do that.

    I went an looked and it appears Pakistan imports ~110 containers of LNG a year. And their natural gas plants are running as 50% capacity.

    Personal belief on big reason for a country to install solar, wind, and batteries to be able to tell the criminals at the IMF to go f' themselves.

  • Because storage is incredibly expensive and thus, for every GW of installed solar capacity you need and an exact another GW reserve capacity from other sources for the rare times when the sun doesn't shine (like, for example, during the night or during large spells of bad weather).

    Besides being intermittent, solar and wind are not really dispatchable, that is, the grid operator doesn't have many levers to control the power output of a plan, and thus this imposes more stress on the other dispatchable power sources.

    Some of those backup sources are not very flexible and take a long time to turn on and off, like coal based, and a lot of nuclear plants. Others, can be brought up online, ramped up and down faster, like gas turbines and hydro.

    But other than gas turbine, most other firm sources economics are based on a predictable demand and a minimum duty cycle. A nuclear plant is very capital expensive, have an excellent capacity factor, but, it can't pay itself and its investor if it is not going to be run most of the time.

    Base load is cheaper, because you dilute fixed costs, peak load is more expensive, because you sell less units to dilute your fixed costs.

    Despite whatever the renewable lobby says, experience has shown over and over, that after a certain proportion of intermittent generation in a grid, large frequency excursions, deteriorated economics and frequent load shedding events are rather the norm than the exception.

    AC grids are stupidly complex beasts. Most politicians, journalists and investors that drive our current discourse on the grid don't have even the most basic pre-requirements to understand it.

    • This is all true except for the fact that storage is not incredibly expensive anymore, which invalidates every single conclusion you reach. Storage is now reasonably affordable, and the trend suggests it will soon be incredibly cheap.

      16 replies →

    • All these problems become solved if you have realtime market pricing.

      Nobody would bother to install rooftop solar if daytime power was super cheap on every sunny day, yet expensive at night when their solar isn't working.

      5 replies →

    • This exact issue lead me to follow the grid orchestration research out of the Oak Ridge Laboratory. The building blocks already exist to enable this. An interconnected smart network of renewables can become a stabilizing force in the overall grid. Off-peak storage would still be required, but would no longer need to be "stabilizing" (turbine or other similar generator), and can be simple batteries.