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Comment by whizzter

19 hours ago

For reference, this city is about as north as Anchorage Alaska and today they got less than 7 hours of sunlight and it'll continue to decrease for the next 3 weeks.

The Nordic countries generally still wants to increase their wind and solar power, but the big issue during winters is when there's cold air high pressure systems we get neither sun nor wind, having an energy storage that can hold up to 5 days worth of energy should help us nudge past them.

Hydro-energy exist (mainly Sweden and Norway, but I think some in Finland as well), but it's fairly built out so stable non-fossil power needs to be nuclear, or wind/sun + storage (that hasn't been good enough so far).

One of the interesting things about hydro is that it's usually constructed to satisfy baseload power. In reality, shifting that over to a peaking plant requires relatively modest changes to system, a small fraction of the cost of an entirely new dam. You don't actually need the "Pumped" part of pumped hydro, you can just throttle normal hydro on and off if you have enough turbines (though for ecological & geomorphological reasons some minor downstream damming also helps). There wasn't any reason to install the extra turbines in the age of fossil fuels. They only take ~30 seconds to spin up, versus days or weeks for thermal plants.

  • Imagine if we build hydro to full capacity and monetize the excess with data/compute centers and/or crypto mining. We'd have so much spare capacity for any residential or industrial purposes.

    • Datacenters and crypto are evidently a bad source for large-scale load variability because their significant capex demands that they be kept running 24/7.

      This is often a problem with variable load schemes that do any useful work, rather than just dumping heat into something. It would be interesting to see a list sorted by just how thick they are with capital considerations. Aluminum smelting, hydrogen electrolysis, lots of other options on that list.

> “Hydro-energy exist, but it's fairly built out so stable non-fossil power needs to be nuclear, or wind/sun + storage”

Interconnectors also exist (and more are planned), which means, for example, that Norway can buy wind energy from the UK when it’s cheap and abundant, in preference to using stored energy from their hydro lakes.

That way they effectively get more out of existing hydro lakes, which in Norway is already a very significant storage capacity.

  • Theres not going to be built any more interconnectors from Norway anytime soon.

    Electricity became a lot more expensive in Norway after building several interconnectors to UK and mainland Europe. Importing high prices from the failed energy politics of UK and Germany which both have among the most expensive electricity in the world.

    This has been a huge debate, and the general concensus seems to be that joining ACER and building inrerconnectors to mainland Europe was a big mistake.

    • > Importing high prices from the failed energy politics of UK

      Remember that its a market, not the consumer price.

      The spot price for UK electricity is still quite competitive in the winter, just not reliable.

      The other thing to note is that peak in the UK is different to peak further up in longitude, which means that there is benefit to both countries for this.

    • That seems counterintuitive to me.

      Electricity prices don't go up because you have access to expensive power, it goes up because you don't have enough cheap power so you have to buy the expensive power.

      It seems like Norway just wouldn't have power if they weren't connected to other sources, not that they'd have more cheap power.

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  • > Norway can buy wind energy from the UK

    Even Southern England cannot get enough wind energy from Scotland to fully utilise wind farms because transmission capacity is insufficient. I would imagine a transmission line to Norway will be even more expensive than to England.

> the big issue during winters is when there's cold air high pressure systems we get neither sun nor wind

Wind does better in the winter.

See eg here for Canada monthly stats: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=251000...

Also, wind does better at night than day, which may be related or not.

Hydro energy generation is fairly built out, but the Nordics have lots of places suitable to build out hydro energy storage. Hydro generation requires a flow to dam, but storage doesn't.

  • We don't really. Hydro storage requires reservoirs where you can freely adjust the water level. Most of our lakes have shorelines that have been built out, and the property owners get really angry if you suggest frequently adjusting the water level significantly.

    The largest planned hydro storage projects are using decommissioned mines, and those are going to run out quickly.

    • You could just build a back-channel for the existing hydro-dams? Those reservoirs are only full for a short period and that is when you dont need pump energy.

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    • You could use the ocean for the bottom level and an artificial reservoir for the top level. You're not going to noticeably affect ocean levels.

      Or just use a large lake. You're not going to noticeably affect the water levels of a large lake. You might pump 10 billion litres of water, which is .02% of the volume of Mjøsa.

      11 replies →

  • True, but that disrupts ecosystems. Or so the argument against go building storage dams go.

    That said, there's been a fair bit of talk here in Norway recently about tax incentives blocking hydro owners from upgrading old generators, improving efficency. Apparently a lot of currently unused power available if they "just" did that.

    • I think hydro storage is a lot less disruptive because you don't need as much space. Traditional hydro reservoirs have to last all season.

    • I wonder if it's possible to also increase the amount of generation on existing dams? I could imagine there being situations where there's excess peak flow capacity but it isn't utilized because the flow rate would be unsustainable. But if we're looking for storage it could make sense.

invest in saving/harvesting energy. Better than producing when solar is cheap as hell and you get no-solar-harvesting because of your location

> but it's fairly built out so stable non-fossil power needs to be nuclear,

Or just gas turbines running on decarbonized fuels. The backup for the "10 year winter" can be fossil fuels. It is such a minuscule problem that it does not matter in the slightest.

It is essentially the emergency reserve we are talking about, no point wasting tens of billions in subsidies per new built nuclear reactor.

  • Those "10 year" winters seems to appear every year with producers falling back to burning fossil fuels to keep the grid working.

    Now part of that problem is that we more or less constantly export electricity to Germany (but that was because they closed their nuclear plants).

    The main problem domestically in Sweden is that 30% of current electricity generation in Sweden is nuclear, but the _newest_ plants are 40 years old, on top of that the electricity generation needs to increase, steel mills de-carbonizing, more electric cars and so on.

    • For a few hours leading to insignificant emissions.

      > Now part of that problem is that we more or less constantly export electricity to Germany (but that was because they closed their nuclear plants).

      We have previously imported way more. The problem nowadays is that carbon emissions are expensive and even more so when coming from LNG rather than pipeline from Russia.

      In other words: our prices were previously more aligned with Germanys because ours were more expensive and Germanys was cheaper.

      If you are Swedish, or understand Swedish following from the "we", take a look at this talk starting at 43:40 to understand where the prices are coming from:

      https://play.mediaflow.com/ovp/16/88PEO8YFIF

      > The main problem domestically in Sweden is that 30% of current electricity generation in Sweden is nuclear, but the _newest_ plants are 40 years old, on top of that the electricity generation needs to increase, steel mills de-carbonizing, more electric cars and so on.

      And new built nuclear power won't be online until the 2040s. Are you saying that we should wait until the 2040s to decarbonize those parts of the economy rather than do it ASAP with renewables and storage?

      The existing nuclear power fleet has now targetted their maintenance on operation until the 2060s, so it is not like it will disappear overnight.

I'm not ruling out Nuclear in general, but let's remember that:

* Energy can also be carried northward from other areas in the same country or neighboring countries, where there are more sunlight hours or more wind.

* Geothermal energy sources, e.g. https://www.rehva.eu/rehva-journal/chapter/geothermal-energy...

* Increase in solar panel farm area

* Improvements in panel efficiency (which continue)

* Improvement in energy use efficiency

... in some combination, and with decent storage, might get even the Nordic countries to cover their needs.

  • 1. The southernmost spot in Finland is too far north, and the scramble that happened in EU at the loss of Russian energy supplies made it crystal clear that we can not trust any other country to help in times of need.

    2. We have no geothermal sources sufficient for production of electricity, it can only be used to slightly reduce primary energy use during winter, but it will raise electricity use during winter.

    3. Helps not at all, because 0 times however large number you like is still 0.

    4. Likewise.

    5. Improvements in efficiency do not help you stay alive when it's -30°C.

    The option up here really truly is "do we use fossil fuels, or do we use nuclear". Renewables do not help. They are nice to have, and it makes sense to build them because they complement the reduced output of nuclear in summertime, and because the lower cost/kWh can help some industry, but that's all.

    • The difference between baseline and peak electricity consumption in Finland is >2x. That's mostly driven by heating. Because renewables make electricity cheap on the average, utility companies invest in cheap heat storage systems such as sand batteries. They use electricity when it's cheap, store the heat, and distribute it when it's needed.

      As for nuclear, the challenge is finding companies that are able and willing to build it. Areva and Rosatom both failed at the "able" part. And a power company (I think it was Fortum) recently stated that they would consider building new nuclear reactors with German electric prices but not with Finnish prices.

      There is more to that than a power company asking for subsidies. Finland is a small country. Olkiluoto 3 alone generates >10% of the electricity. Newer reactors would likely be smaller but still ~10% of the total. Finnish power companies are too small to take risks like that on their own. They can't build new reactors at their own risk, in order to sell the power in the market. Before a reactor gets built, the power company needs long-term commitments from industrial users and utility companies to buy power for a guaranteed price. Such commitments would make sense for the buyer with German electricity prices but not with Finnish prices.

      3 replies →

    • >2. We have no geothermal sources sufficient for production of electricity, it can only be used to slightly reduce primary energy use during winter, but it will raise electricity use during winter.

      The project for properly deep geothermal for district heating in Espoo was not resounding success. And that is 6,4km deep hole in southern part of Finland. My understanding is that it somewhat worked. But not as good as expected.

    • >The option up here really truly is "do we use fossil fuels, or do we use nuclear". Renewables do not help.

      Hey now - renewables gave us electricity up here long before Einstein started thinking about atoms!

      We are very few people here, 250MWh helps a lot, but if we have to chip in to build a nuclear plant we'll be broke before the project planning is done. ;-)

    • > The southernmost spot in Finland is too far north, and the scramble that happened in EU at the loss of Russian energy supplies made it crystal clear that we can not trust any other country to help in times of need.

      That's the failure of European union

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    • > 3. Helps not at all, because 0 times however large number you like is still 0.

      Show me your Monte Carlo simulation where wind (which is negatively correlated to solar) and 8 hours of battery storage are factored in, along with small amounts of gas peaking plants.

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Right, the worst case scenario is cold temperatures, transmission problems (say days after a storm), lull, and nuclear and hydro power malfunction. However, it should be pointed out that winters are usually quite windy and there are only a few days per year you get very cold temperatures coupled with nearly no wind at all.

  • "there are only a few days per year you get very cold temperatures coupled with nearly no wind at all"

    This is a terrible handwave. How many days per year, in the middle of winter, in a cold country, are you OK with having no power?

    • The system in the article works alongside gas and wood chips heating, so there are other options in place if the sand battery cannot be "charged".

      FTA:

      > The project will cut fossil-based emissions in the Vääksy district heating network by around 60% each year, by reducing natural gas use bu 80% and also decreasing wood chip consumption.

      1 reply →

    • Why no power? The forests, hydro dams, heat plants and such that gave power long before wind became a thing are still there.

    • This would be an argument for widespread backup power, actually. If every residence had enough backup power to get through 24 hours, it would be far easier to deal with these relatively rare doldrums.

But "stable" isn't really want they want or need. They have a) cold, dark winters so they want more energy in the winter not a constant amount year round, b) hydro (89% of electricity in Norway!) that is already used as seasonal storage and can be varied to meet daily variation.

Cheap wind that produces more in winter is the obvious answer and indeed seems to be a focus of their build out.

  • > But "stable" isn't really want they want or need.

    Yes, that is exactly what they need. They need stable energy over let's say a 1-2 week period. A windy week is often followed by a non-windy week. So if they can store the energy from the windy week and use it in the following week then they can rely on wind power as a stable energy source.