I think it’s plausible that the UK electorate are sick of switching between Tories and Labour for the last hundred years, especially as they have become indistinguishable in many respects. They were held back because there wasn’t a plausible alternative that had a hope of being elected. Reform has been leading the polls for nearly all this year, so let’s check in a year to see where they stand. But Labour (especially) and the Tories are not going to see an upswing any time soon. The problems in the country (mostly economic due to policy) continue, and their supporters are doomed to the madness of doing the same thing but expecting different results.
While I'm sure you know much more than I do about UK politics, it seems like some systemic factor pushes both Tories and Labour and whoever else comes close to power, well to the right of their respective voters. In the US, that factor would be campaign contributions and an extremely well-funded conservative propaganda/patronage machine on a war footing.
In the UK, is it all about media ownership or something?
The media plays a big role in election outcomes. The Murdoch empire used to have an oversized influence, but since Murdoch exited Sky UK, that's been on the wane. The Sun (which helped Labour's Tony Blair win his landslide) is still a Murdoch enterprise, but it hasn't really moved with the times, and newer media-savvy outlets are starting to get mindshare.
GBNews launched in 2021 with a strong anti-establishment mandate. The growth in its audience surprised everyone, surpassing both BBC News and Sky in viewership. For four consecutive months (July-October 2025) GBNews has been Britain's number one news channel (Source: BARB).
Crucially it also has 2.5bn views on YouTube since launch.
The establishment try to write off and condescend GBNews, but in doing so they condescend the large and growing section of the UK public that GBNews represents (e.g. for example - people on both the Left and Right who are frustrated with 110,000 undocumented migrants entering the UK over the last three years, many of whom have been put up in hotels at taxpayer expense).
As the elite condescend and push away large swathes of the population, they are creating increasing loyalty toward GBNews, and by extension, the Reform Party.
> But the Greens have chosen to embrace their own form of populist lunacy.
Well, populist lunacy is how Reform got so popular, so I can see why it would be tempting for the Green party.
Main thing that's weird right now with the UK is that because it's first-past-the-post and the current polling is Reform:~29%, Lib/Lab/Con/Green:~16%, I would not be surprised by any of these parties forming a minority government nor any one of them getting a massive parliamentary majority.
That said I will find it very very funny if the Conservative party ends up last from that list.
I think it’s plausible that the UK electorate are sick of switching between Tories and Labour for the last hundred years, especially as they have become indistinguishable in many respects. They were held back because there wasn’t a plausible alternative that had a hope of being elected. Reform has been leading the polls for nearly all this year, so let’s check in a year to see where they stand. But Labour (especially) and the Tories are not going to see an upswing any time soon. The problems in the country (mostly economic due to policy) continue, and their supporters are doomed to the madness of doing the same thing but expecting different results.
While I'm sure you know much more than I do about UK politics, it seems like some systemic factor pushes both Tories and Labour and whoever else comes close to power, well to the right of their respective voters. In the US, that factor would be campaign contributions and an extremely well-funded conservative propaganda/patronage machine on a war footing.
In the UK, is it all about media ownership or something?
The media plays a big role in election outcomes. The Murdoch empire used to have an oversized influence, but since Murdoch exited Sky UK, that's been on the wane. The Sun (which helped Labour's Tony Blair win his landslide) is still a Murdoch enterprise, but it hasn't really moved with the times, and newer media-savvy outlets are starting to get mindshare.
GBNews launched in 2021 with a strong anti-establishment mandate. The growth in its audience surprised everyone, surpassing both BBC News and Sky in viewership. For four consecutive months (July-October 2025) GBNews has been Britain's number one news channel (Source: BARB).
Crucially it also has 2.5bn views on YouTube since launch.
The establishment try to write off and condescend GBNews, but in doing so they condescend the large and growing section of the UK public that GBNews represents (e.g. for example - people on both the Left and Right who are frustrated with 110,000 undocumented migrants entering the UK over the last three years, many of whom have been put up in hotels at taxpayer expense).
As the elite condescend and push away large swathes of the population, they are creating increasing loyalty toward GBNews, and by extension, the Reform Party.
> In the UK, is it all about media ownership or something?
Yes.
Yelling 'racist' at Farage for over a decade hasn't got rid of him. Maybe 4 more years of doing the same thing will do the job?
Can't see the Tories bouncing back in a few mere years. Labour are heading rapidly into the same unelectable territory.
Which leaves us with Reform vs a Green-LibDem coalition?
But the Greens have chosen to embrace their own form of populist lunacy. And some will never forgive the Lib Dems for their last coalition.
> But the Greens have chosen to embrace their own form of populist lunacy.
Well, populist lunacy is how Reform got so popular, so I can see why it would be tempting for the Green party.
Main thing that's weird right now with the UK is that because it's first-past-the-post and the current polling is Reform:~29%, Lib/Lab/Con/Green:~16%, I would not be surprised by any of these parties forming a minority government nor any one of them getting a massive parliamentary majority.
That said I will find it very very funny if the Conservative party ends up last from that list.
Out of curiosity, which of Reform's policies are "lunacy"?
Removing the 2 child benefit cap? Increasing NHS spending? Returning to New Labour levels of net immigration, being a country with borders?
> That said I will find it very very funny if the Conservative party ends up last from that list.
At least we agree on that. The Tories deserve to be confined to the dustbin of history.
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