Comment by lisbbb
2 months ago
I don't think so about the gpus. It's a sunk cost that won't be repurposed easily--just look at what happened to Nortel. Did all those PBXs get repurposed? Nope--trash. Those data centers are going to eat it hard, that's my prediction. It's not a terrible thing, per se--"we" printed trillions the past few years and those events need a sink to get rid of all the excess liquidity. It's usually a big war, but not always. Last time it was a housing bubble. Everyone was going to get rich on real estate, but not really. It was just an exercise in finding bag holders. That's what this AI/data center situation amounts to as well--companies had billions in cash sitting around doing nothing, might as well spend it. Berkshire has the same problem--hundreds of billions with nowhere to be productively invested. It doesn't sound like a problem but it is.
My humble take on AGI is that we don't understand consciousness so how could we build something conscious except by accident? It seems like an extremely risky and foolish thing to attempt. Luckily, humans will fail at it.
I mean we really don't need something to be conscious, would just need it to be accurate, the current models simply aren't built on a framework to be accurate. I think that it's possible, and already being done to effectively instill accuracy. The issue there is that you no longer have the mass marketable general purpose machines that compete with things like Google / Facebook etc for eyeballs, which is where the huge money exists. So you can either sell valuable inference to a target audience and make a few billion. Or you can sell passable slop to 8 billion people and be worth a few trillion.