Comment by parliament32
19 hours ago
Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
19 hours ago
Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
This comment has strong draw the rest of the owl vibes. (and the risk analysis & factor can cover a multitude of sins).
Risk analysis depends highly on your views of the world? "Are we in/heading towards a recession?""will the stock market continue its explosive growth"? "Do I as a person favor stability or prefer to take a bit of risk?"
All these will influence your EV.
Well yes, precisely. Which is why nobody can give this guy an objective answer to his question -- it's entirely dependent on him and his views. That being said, there is absolutely an analytical way to approach the problem, which is what I outlined.
I imagine that someone asking for advice isn't trying to take any comment wholesale. It's to help answer one of the above questions that they currently cannot right now.
For an internet forum, I've found it easier to ask direct, actionable questions like "should I buy this couch" than "is [couch brand] good?". Even if what I really wanted to get at was the former. Maybe the brand isnt good but the price is a steal. Maybe the brand is so utterly trash that you couldn't give it away. But putting the brand into the question instead of a direct 'thing' changes the discourse.