Comment by lmm
3 months ago
> what happen if the market is right and this is "new normal"?????
Then there's an oversupply of programmers, salaries will crash, and lots of people will have to switch careers. It's happened before.
3 months ago
> what happen if the market is right and this is "new normal"?????
Then there's an oversupply of programmers, salaries will crash, and lots of people will have to switch careers. It's happened before.
Some people will lose their homes. Some marriages will fail from the stress. Some people will chose to exit life because of it all.
It's happened before and there's no way we could have learned from that and improved things. It has to be just life changing, life ruining, career crippling. Absolutely no other way for a society to function than this.
That's where the post-scarcity society AI will enable comes in! Surely the profits from this technology will allow these displaced programmers to still live comfortable lives, not just be hoarded by a tiny number of already rich and powerful people. /s
I'd sooner believe that a unicorn will fly over my house and poop out rainbow skittles on my lawn. Yeah /s for sure!
You and I both know we're probably headed for revolutionary times.
It's not as simple as putting all programmers into one category. There can be oversupply of web developers but at the same time undersupply of COBOL developers. If you are a very good developer, you will always be in demand.
> If you are a very good developer, you will always be in demand.
"Always", in the same way that five years ago we'd "never" have an AI that can do a code review.
Don't get me wrong: I've watched a decade of promises that "self driving cars are coming real soon now honest", latest news about Tesla's is that it can't cope with leaves; I certainly *hope* that a decade from now will still be having much the same conversation about AI taking senior programmer jobs, but "always" is a long time.
Five years ago we had pretty good static analysis tools for popular languages which could automate certain aspects of code reviews and catch many common defects. Those tools didn't even use AI, just deterministic pattern matching. And yet due to laziness and incompetence many developers didn't even bother taking full advantage of those tools to maximize their own productivity.
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Even if someday we get AI that can generalize well, the need for a person who actually develops things using AI is not going anywhere. The thing with AI is that you cannot make it responsible, there will still be a human in the loop who is responsible for conveying ideas to the AI and controlling its results, and that person will be the developer. Senior developers are not hired just because they are smart or can write code or build systems, they are also hired to share the load of responsibility.
Someone with a name, an employment contract, and accountability is needed to sign off on decisions. Tools can be infinitely smart, but they cannot be responsible, so AI will shift how developers work, not whether they are needed.
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ai can do code review? do people actually believe this? we have a mr llm bot, it is wrong 95% of the time
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I've been taking self-driving cars to get around regularly for a year or more.
waymo and tesla already operate in certain areas, even if tech is ready
regulation still very much a thing
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I'm young, please when was that and in what industry
After the year 2000. dot com burst.
An tech employee posted he looked for job for 6 months, found none and has joined a fast food shop flipping burgers.
That turned tech workers switching to "flipping burgers" into a meme.
What was a little different then was that tech jobs paid about 30% more than other jobs, it wasn't anything like the highs we have seen the last few years. I used to describe it as you used to have the nicer house on the block, but then in the 2010s+ FNG salaries had people living in whole other neighborhoods. So switching out of the industry, while painful was not as traumatic. Obviously though having to actually flip burgers was a move of desperation and traumatic. The .com bust was largely centered around SV as well, in NYC (where I live) there was some fallout, but there was still a tailwind of businesses of all sorts expanding their tech footprint, so while you may not have been able to land at a hot startup and dream of getting rich in an IPO, by the end of 2003 it was mostly stabilized and you could likely have landed a somewhat boring corporate job even if it was just building internal apps.
I feel like there are a lot of people in school or recently graduated though that had FNG dreams and never considered an alternative. This is going to be very difficult for them. I now feel, especially as tech has gone truly borderless with remote work, that this downturn is now way worse than the .com bust. It has just dragged on for years now, with no real end in sight.
I used to watch all of the "Odd Todd" episodes religiously. Does anyone else remember that Adobe Flash-based "TV show" (before YouTube!)?
.com implosion, tech jobs of all kinds went from "we'll hire anyone who knows how to use a mouse" to the tech jobs section of the classifieds was omitted entirely for 20 months. There have been other bumps in the road since then but that was a real eye-opener.
well same like covid right??? digital/tech company overhiring because everyone is home and at the same time the rise of AI reduce the number of headcount
covid overhiring + AI usage = massive layoff we ever see in decades
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The defense industry in southern California used to be huge until the 1980s. Lots and lots of ex-defense industry people moved to other industries. Oil and gas has gone through huge economic cycles of massive investment and massive cut-backs.