Comment by mapontosevenths
2 days ago
I suspect that people instinctively believe they have free will, both because it feels like we do, and because society requires us to behave that way even when we don't.
The truth is that the evidence says we don't. See the Libet experiment and its many replications.
Your decisions can be predicted from brain scans up to 10 seconds before you make them, which means they are as deterministic as an LLM's. Sorry, I guess.
> Your decisions can be predicted from brain scans up to 10 seconds before you make them, which means they are as deterministic as an LLM's.
This conclusion does not follow from the result at all.
Libet has only measured the latency of metaconsciousness/cognition, nothing else. It says nothing about free will, which is ill defined anyway.
I've seen that argument repeated ad-nauseum.
It makes sense if you're desperate for free will to be real, but you really have to work for it. Especially when you add in the countless other studies showing that a lot of the reasons we give for our actions, especially in quick or ambiguous choices, are confabulationalist post-hoc constructions. Our own introspection seems mostly to consist of just "making stuff up" to justify the decisions we've already made.
I mean, a reasonable person could argue their way past all the evidence without totally denying it, but "free will" just isn't the simplest explanation that fits the available data. It's possible that free will exists in the same way it's possible that Russels teapot exists.
Maybe the point of someone else you've spoken to. Personally I don't even see how free will enters into this discussion, and if you were to ask me, I don't even think we have it as it is commonly defined/understood. But any comment on free will doesn't change the fact that Libet measured metacognition latency and nothing else.
What is the import of this to you here? Whether you have free will or you feel like you do, kinda same difference for this particular point right? It doesn't make me more human actually having free will, it is sufficient to simply walk around as if I do.
But beyond that, what do you want to say here? What is lost, what is gained? Are you wanting to say this makes us more like an LLM? How so?
I looked up the Libet experiment:
"Implications
The experiment raised significant questions about free will and determinism. While it suggested that unconscious brain activity precedes conscious decision-making, Libet argued that this does not negate free will, as individuals can still choose to suppress actions initiated by unconscious processes."
It's been repeated a huge number of time since, and widely debated. When Libet first did the experiment it was only like 200ms before the mind become consciously aware of the decision. More recent studies have shown they can predict actions up to 7-10 seconds before the subject is aware of having made a decision.
It's pretty hard to argue that you're really "free" to make a different decision if your body knew which you would choose 7 seconds before you became aware of it.
I mean, those long term predictions were only something like 60% accurate, but still, the preponderance of evidence says that those decisions are deterministic and we keep finding new ways to predict the outcome sooner and with higher accuracy.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18408715/
"I conducted an experiment where I instructed experienced drivers to follow a path in a parking lot laid out with traffic cones, and found that we were able to predict the trajectory of the car with greater than 60% accuracy. Therefore drivers do not have free will to just dodge the cones and drive arbitrarily from the start to the finish."
Clearly, that conclusion would be patently absurd to draw from that experiment. There are so many expectation and observation effects that go into the very setup from the beginning. Humans generally follow directions, particularly when a guy in a labcoat is giving them.
> At some point, when they felt the urge to do so, they were to freely decide between one of two buttons, operated by the left and right index fingers, and press it immediately. [0]
Wow. TWO whole choices to choose from! Human minds tend to pre-think their choice between one of two fingers to wiggle, therefore free will doesn't exist.
> It's pretty hard to argue that you're really "free" to make a different decision if your body knew which you would choose 7 seconds before you became aware of it.
To really spell it out since the analogy/satire may be lost: You're free to refrain from pressing either button during the prompt. You're free to press both buttons at the same time. You're free to mash them rapidly and randomly throughout the whole experiment. You're free to walk into the fMRI room with a bag full of steel BB's and cause days of downtime and thousands of dollars in damage. Folks generally don't do those things because of conditioning.
[0] - http://behavioralhealth2000.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/U...
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