Comment by mannykannot
10 hours ago
There is a time- honored, straightforward way to deal with the last two percent problem, which is to overbuild by a couple of percent or so.
10 hours ago
There is a time- honored, straightforward way to deal with the last two percent problem, which is to overbuild by a couple of percent or so.
That’s not how the maths works unfortunately.
Basically, you end up having to overbuild to crazy levels, or build insane amounts of battery storage, which only gets used a few days a year.
That is right (if rather exaggerated, and I will note that it was you who originally picked the figure of two percent), and in practice, we accept a certain risk that we will not always have all the capacity we want, even though (or because) we cannot precisely predict how big or often these events will be. There is no particular reason to think this specific case is any different.
Why can't we predict how big or how often those events would be? We have clear understandings of the distribution of probabilities for all kinds of weather scenarios - see for example 1-50/100/1000 year flood/droughts.
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