Comment by mannykannot

I'm not saying we cannot do it, just that we cannot always get it right, and there is plenty of empirical evidence for that.

The second point is that the distribution has a long tail, especially when we consider the possibility of multiple independent incidents overlapping in time, to the point where it becomes infeasible to suppose that we could be prepared to continue operating as if nothing had happened in all conceivable scenarios, regardless of how accurately we could predict their likelihood.