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Comment by jackling

5 days ago

Both the 1500 and 4000 number were confirmed by Lebanon, and no reputable watch organization has credibly disputed them, you're not citing evidence just conjecture on how you believe everything went down due to a relative small bits of information.

> along with a directional sense of the wounded vs. KIA count of the strike

I am not sure what this means.

To add, you're making it impossible to argue anything against your claim. We're discussing how the pagers hurt civilians and if they were properly targetting combatants. You're saying no matter what, since you know the pager was targetting combatants, the evidence that civilians were hurt must be false. Your logic circular.

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jackling

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juliusdavies  5 days ago

Do you want some deeply studied anthropological journal article on “The use of pagers in Lebanese society “?

Do you know of any civilians anywhere in the world that currently use pagers?

Who had the pagers and why they had the pagers is almost derivable from first principles at this point, never mind the international journalism on the subject.

  • tptacek  5 days ago

    I'm not deriving who had the pagers from first principles. They were military pagers, on a military network that Hezbollah fought an actual civil war to establish and maintain, with subverted devices that Hezbollah itself acquired directly. There's a lot of reporting on this. Israel did not booby trap the whole supply of pagers into Lebanon. The Hezbollah combatants carrying these pagers did not acquire them at a Beirut Cellular Retail Outlet.

    Another way to say this is that if you have evidence/reporting suggesting that Israel did in fact set explosives in pagers that were broadly available to Lebanese civilians, my argument falls apart.

    I think Hezbollah is inexcusably evil, far worse than Israel is, but I'm not particularly interested in defending Israeli governance; I have no commitment to the proposition that Israel doesn't commit atrocities (in fact, I think they commit rather many of them). So I'm fine with my argument collapsing; I'm just waiting for evidence to topple it. The trouble the preceding commenter is having with me is that I can't find a story that squares the circle of the numbers they're trying to present.

  • PepperdineG  4 days ago

    >Do you know of any civilians anywhere in the world that currently use pagers?

    Dennis Duffy, but he is the Beeper King.

  • jackling  5 days ago

    It’s almost like explosives… explode, and hit the people and surroundings near them. Shrapnel travels. You’re trying to derive who had the pagers from first principles, yet you don’t seem to understand how a bomb actually works.

    • tptacek  5 days ago

      (1) We have videos of the explosions and their scale.

      (2) We have Hezbollah's own claims about how many of their fighters were actually killed.

      (3) We have Hezbollah's own photographs of scores of injured Hezbollah fighters --- people not blown apart from the explosions, further backing a claim that all sides to the conflict are making (far more casualties than KIA).

      (4) We know how small the pagers were (indeed, exactly what pagers they were) and what the explosive was.

      To the extent Lebanon is reporting higher civilian casualties than Hezbollah fighter casualties, the balance of evidence is that at least one of two things is happening: either Hezbollah is dramatically understating its own casualties, or Lebanon is dramatically overstating civilian casualties.

      later

      (Or we're just misreading the statistics! Pretty normal outcome for a message board discussion!)

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