Comment by amirhirsch
2 days ago
The effect of these tools is people losing their software jobs (down 35% since 2020). Unemployed devs aren’t clamoring to go use AI on OSS.
2 days ago
The effect of these tools is people losing their software jobs (down 35% since 2020). Unemployed devs aren’t clamoring to go use AI on OSS.
Wasn't most of that caused by that one change in 2022 to how R&D expenses are depreciated, thus making R&D expenses (like retaining dev staff) less financially attractive?
Context: This news story https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44180533
Yes! Even though it's only a tax rule for USA, it somehow applied for the whole world! Thats how mighty the US is!
Or could it be, after the growth and build, we are in maintenance mode and we need less people?
Just food for thought
Yes, because US big tech have regional offices in loads of other countries too, fired loads of those developers at the same time and so the US job market collapse affected everyone.
And since then there's been a constant doom and gloom narrative even before AI started.
Probably also end of ZIRP and some “AI washing” to give the illusion of progress
Same thing happened to farmers during the industrial revolution, same thing happened to horse drawn carriage drivers, same thing happened to accountants when Excel came along, mathmaticins, and on and on the list goes. Just part of human peogress.
I keep asking chatgpt when will LLM reach 95% software creation automation, answer is ten years.
I don't think that long, but yeah, I give it five years.
Two years and 3/4 will be not needed anymore
I don't have all the variables in (financials of openai debt etc) but a few articles mention that they leverage part of their work to {claude,gemini,chatgpt} code agents internally with good results. it's a first step in a singularity like ramp up.
People think they'll have jobs maintaining AI output but i don't see how maintaining is that harder than creating for a llm able to digest requirements and codebase and iterate until a working source runs.
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