I'm expecting this to be a bubble, and that bubble to burst; when it does, whatever's the top model at that point can likely still be distilled relatively cheaply like all other models have been.
That, combined with my expectations that consumer RAM prices will return to their trend and decrease in price, means that if the bubble pops in the year 20XX, whatever performance was bleeding edge at the pop, runs on a high-end smartphone in the year 20XX+5.
The technology of LLMs is already applicable to valuable enough problems, therefore it won’t be a bubble.
The world might be using a standard of AI needing to be a world beater to succeed but it’s simply not the case, AI a is software, and it can solve problems other software can’t.
> The technology of LLMs is already applicable to valuable enough problems, therefore it won’t be a bubble.
Dot-com was a bubble despite being applicable to valuable problems. So were railways when the US had a bubble on those.
Bubbles don't just mean tulips.
What we've got right now, I'm saying the money will run out and not all the current players will win any money from all their spending. It's even possible that *none* of the current players win, even when everyone uses it all the time, precisely due to the scenario you replied to:
Runs on a local device, no way to extract profit to repay the cost of training.
For now.
I'm expecting this to be a bubble, and that bubble to burst; when it does, whatever's the top model at that point can likely still be distilled relatively cheaply like all other models have been.
That, combined with my expectations that consumer RAM prices will return to their trend and decrease in price, means that if the bubble pops in the year 20XX, whatever performance was bleeding edge at the pop, runs on a high-end smartphone in the year 20XX+5.
The technology of LLMs is already applicable to valuable enough problems, therefore it won’t be a bubble.
The world might be using a standard of AI needing to be a world beater to succeed but it’s simply not the case, AI a is software, and it can solve problems other software can’t.
> The technology of LLMs is already applicable to valuable enough problems, therefore it won’t be a bubble.
Dot-com was a bubble despite being applicable to valuable problems. So were railways when the US had a bubble on those.
Bubbles don't just mean tulips.
What we've got right now, I'm saying the money will run out and not all the current players will win any money from all their spending. It's even possible that *none* of the current players win, even when everyone uses it all the time, precisely due to the scenario you replied to:
Runs on a local device, no way to extract profit to repay the cost of training.
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