Comment by lynndotpy
5 days ago
A lot of shiny new "AI" features being shipped are language models being placed where they don't belong. It's reasonable to be skeptical here, not just because of the AI label, but especially for the troubled history of neural-network based ML methods for weather prediction.
Even before LLMs got big, a lot of machine learning research being published were models which underperformed SOTA (which was the case for weather modeling for a long time!) or models which are far far larger than they need to be (e.g. this [1] Nature paper using 'deep learning' for aftershock prediction being bested by this [2] Nature paper using one neuron.
Not all transformers are LLMs.
Yes, that is not in contention. Not all transformers are LLMs, not all neural networks are transformers, not all machine learning methods are neural networks, not all statistical methods are machine learning.
I'm not saying this is an LLM, margalabargala is not saying this is an LLM. They only said they hoped that they did not integrate an LLM into the weather model, which is a reasonable and informed concern to have.
Sigmar is correctly pointing out that they're using a transformer model, and that transformers are effective for modeling things other than language. (And, implicitly, that this _isn't_ adding a step where they ask ChatGPT to vibe check the forecast.)
“I hope these experts who have worked in the field for years didn’t do something stupid that I imagine a novice would do” is a reasonable concern?
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