Comment by sipjca

How many consumers (not business) are genuinely using frontier models? You think OpenAI and Anthropic will forever serve the most intelligent models to free users? Heck they don’t already

Efficiency gains exist and likely will continue, as well as hardware generally accelerating, as software and hardware starts to become co-optimized. This will take time no doubt but 10-15 years is hilariously long in this world. The iPhone has barely been out that long

And to be clear I think the other arguments are valid I just think the timeline is out of whack