Comment by JumpCrisscross
2 months ago
> As the demand dwindles the US has to sell its bonds cheaper
To be clear, we see no indication of this. (The Fed reduced its balance sheet in the last 3 years on the order of the GDP of Spain or Brazil [1][2].)
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/policy-normali...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
Not sure what your links are supposed to prove but here is the link[1] to the actual yield on the 10 year bond, higher yield means the bond is sold at higher discount i.e. cheaper.
1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/
> higher yield means the bond is sold at higher discount i.e. cheaper
Yes. The Fed set a policy of higher rates. It did that by selling bonds and driving the price up.
Then it set a policy of reducing rates, and was able to do that by just selling fewer bonds. Not buying them. That implies strong demand for these assets. (You can’t use price as a proxy for demand in Treasuries since it’s an explicitly manipulated price by its issuer.)
Long bond rates have somewhat decoupled from short term rates set by the fed. For instance, they just slashed short term rates 25bps, but long bond rates (10+ years) have actually gone up a few basis points since the cut.
This is exactly what we'd expect if demand for treasuries wasn't keeping pace with US debt issuance. I mean, if you look at the debt, and the USD's current position, there really is no way out for the US government other than inflating the currency and cashing in that reserve status for a reset. The obviousness of that reality is why precious metals are going nuts.
2 replies →
>It did that by selling bonds and driving the price up.
No, the yield went up and price went down. Prices usually don't go down if demand remains unchanged.