Comment by simonw

It's really hard to predict how other developers are going to work, especially given how resistant a lot of developers are to fully exploring the new tools.

I do think there's been a bit of a shift in the last two months, with GPT 5.1 and 5.2 Codex and Opus 4.5.

We have models that can reliably follow complex instructions over multiple hour projects now - that's completely new. Those of us at the cutting edge are still coming to terms with the consequences of this (as illustrated by this Karpathy tweet).

I don't trust my predictions myself, but I think the next few months are going to see some big changes in terms of what mainstream developers understand these tools as being capable of.