Comment by aurareturn

  There is a hardware cost bubble though. I'm betting OpenAI will get a lot more bang for its buck in terms of hardware by 2030. It won't be NVidia taking most of that revenue.

Whoever has the most compute will ultimately be the winner. This is why these companies are projecting hundreds of billions in infrastructure spend.

With more compute, you can train better models, serve them to more users, serve them faster. The more users, the more compute you can buy. It's a run away cycle. We're seeing only 3 (4 if you count Meta) frontier LLM providers left in the US market.

Nvidia's margins might come down by 2030. It won't stay in the 70s. But the overall market can expand quicker than Nvidia's profits shrink so that they can be more profitable in 2030 despite lower market share.