Comment by nchmy

Yes, I read the article. I still think it's incorrect. Most software (especially by usage) is already not artisanal. You get the exact same browser, database server and (whatsapp/signal/telegram/whatever) messenger client as basically everyone else. Those are churned out by the millions from a common blueprint and designed by teams and teams of highly skilled specialists using specialized tooling, not so different from the latest iPhone or car.

As such, the article's point fails right at the start when it tries to make the point that software production is not already industrial. It is. But if you look at actual industrial design processes, their equivalent of "writing the code" is relatively small. Quality assurance, compliance to various legal requirements, balancing different requirements for the product at hand, having endless meetings with customer representatives to figure out requirements in the first place, those are where most of the time goes and those are exactly the places where LLMs are not very good. So the part that is already fast will get faster and the slow part will stay slow. That is not a recipe for revolutionary progress.

I guess two things can be true at the same time. And I think AI will likely matter a lot more than detractors think, and nowhere near as much as enthusiasts think.

Perhaps a good analogy is the spreadsheet. It was a complete shift in the way that humans interacted with numbers. From accounting to engineering to home budgets - there are few people who haven't used a spreadsheet to "program" the computer at some point.

It's a fantastic tool, but has limits. It's also fair to say people use (abuse) spreadsheets far beyond those limits. It's a fantastic tool for accounting, but real accounting systems exist for a reason.

Similarly AI will allow lots more people to "program" their computer. But making the programing task go away just exposes limitations in other parts of the "development" process.

To your analogy I don't think AI does mass-produced paperbacks. I think it is the equivalent of writing a novel for yourself. People don't sell spreadsheets, they use them. AI will allow people to write programs for themselves, just like digital cameras turned us all into photographers. But when we need it "done right" we'll still turn to people with honed skills.

“Garbage books” are mass-printed, but aren’t mass-written in a mass production sense. Mass production is about producing fairly exact copies of something that was designed once. The design part has always remained more artisanal than industrial. It’s only the production based on the design (or manuscript) that is industrial.

The difference with software is that software is design all the way down. It only needs to be written once, similar to how a mass-produced item needs only be designed once. The copying that corresponds to mass production is the deployment and execution of the software, not the writing of it.

Isn't this already the case? Your company doesn't build its own word processor, they license it from Microsoft, or they pay Google for G Suite, or whatever. Great books are sold in paperback, after all.

The syntactic representation will become that. End of day it's just math ops, state sync of memory and display. Even semantic objects like an OSs protected memory is a special case of access control that can be mathematically computed around. There is nothing important about special semantics.

The user experience will be less constrained as the self arrangement of pixels improves and users do not run into designer constraints, usually due to lack of granularity some button widget or layout framework is capable of.

"Artisanal" software engineers probably never were their own self selected identity.

Have been writing code since the late 80s, when Windows and commercial Unix were too expansive and we all wrote shoddy but functional kernels. Who does that now? Most gigs these days are glue code to fetch/cache deps and template concrete config values for frameworks. Artisanal SaaS configuration is not artisanal software engineering.

And because software engineers were their own worst enemy the last decade; living big as they ate others jobs and industries; hate for the industry has gone mainstream. Something politicians have to react to. Non-SWEs don't want to pay middle men to use their property. GenAI can get them to that place.

As an art teacher once said; making things for money is not the practice of a craft. It's just capitalism. Anyone building SaaS apps through contemporary methods is a Subway sandwich artist, not the old timey well rounded farmer, hunter, who also bakes bread.

What he's missing is that there's always been a market for custom-built software by non-professionals. For instance, spreadsheets. Back in the 1970s engineers and accountants and people like that wrote simple programs for programmable calculators. Today it's Python.

The most radical development in software tools I think, would be more tools for non-professional programmers to program small tools that put their skills on wheels. I did a lot of biz dev around something that encompassed "low code/no code" but a revolution there involves smoothing out 5-10 obstacles with a definite Ashby character that if you fool yourself that you can get away with ignoring the last 2 required requirements you get just another Wix that people will laugh at. For now, AI coding doesn't have that much to offer the non-professional programmer because a person without insight into the structure of programs, project management and a sense of what quality means will go in circles at best.

I think the thinking in the article is completely backwards about the economics. I mean, the point of software is you can write it once and the cost to deploy a billion units is trivial in comparison. Sure, AI slop can put the "crap" in "app" but if you have any sense you don't go cruising the app store for trash but find out about best-of-breed products or products that are the thin edge of a long wedge (like the McDonald's app which is valuable because it has all the stores baacking it)

This was already true before LLMs. "Artisinal software" was never the norm. The tsunami of crap just got a bit bigger.

Unlike clothing, software always scaled. So, it's a bit wrongheaded to assume that the new economics would be more like the economics of clothing after mass production. An "artisanal" dress still only fits one person. "Artisanal" software has always served anywhere between zero people and millions.

LLMs are not the spinning jenny. They are not an industrial revolution, even if the stock market valuations assume that they are.