Comment by zahlman
18 hours ago
Making predictions is useful even when they turn out very wrong. Consider also giving confidence levels, so that you can calibrate going forward.
18 hours ago
Making predictions is useful even when they turn out very wrong. Consider also giving confidence levels, so that you can calibrate going forward.
I use predictions to prepare rather than to plan.
Planing depends on deterministic view of the future. I used to plan (esp annual plans) until about 5 years. Now I scan for trends and prepare myself for different scenarios that can come in the future. Even if you get it approximately right, you stand apart.
For tech trends, I read Simon, Benedict Evans, Mary Meeker etc. Simon is in a better position make these predictions than anyone else having closely analyzed these trends over the last few years.
Here I wrote about my approach: https://www.jjude.com/shape-the-future/