← Back to context

Comment by aoeusnth1

17 hours ago

It has! CLs/engineer increased by 10% this year.

LLMs from late 2024 were nearly worthless as coding agents, so given they have quadrupled in capability since then (exponential growth, btw), it's not surprising to see a modestly positive impact on SWE work.

Also, I'm noticing you're not explaining yourself :)

9 comments

aoeusnth1

Reply
surajrmal  14 hours ago

I think this is happening by raising the floor for job roles which are largely boilerplate work. If you are on the more skilled side or work in more original/ niche areas, AI doesn't really help too much. I've only been able to use AI effectively for scaling refactors, not really much in feature development. It often just slows me down when I try to use it. I don't see this changing any time soon.

llmslave2  17 hours ago

Hey, I'm not the OG commentator, why do I have to explain myself! :)

When Fernando Alonso (best rookie btw) goes from 0-60 in 2.4 seconds in his Aston Martin, is it reasonable to assume he will near the speed of light in 20 seconds?

  • lopatin  15 hours ago

    > Hey, I'm not the OG commentator, why do I have to explain myself! :)

    The issue is that you're not acknowledging or replying to people's explanations for _why_ they see this as exponential growth. It's almost as if you skimmed through the meat of the comment and then just re-phrased your original idea.

    > When Fernando Alonso (best rookie btw) goes from 0-60 in 2.4 seconds in his Aston Martin, is it reasonable to assume he will near the speed of light in 20 seconds?

    This comparison doesn't make sense because we know the limits of cars but we don't yet know the limits of LLMs. It's an open question. Whether or not an F1 engine can make it the speed of light in 20 seconds is not an open question.

    • llmslave2  14 hours ago

      It's not in me to somehow disprove claims of exponential growth when there isn't even evidence provided of it.

      My point with the F1 comparison is to say that a short period of rapid improvement doesn't imply exponential growth and it's about as weird to expect that as it is for an f1 car to reach the speed of light. It's possible you know, the regulations are changing for next season - if Leclerc sets a new lap record in Australia by .1 ms we can just assume exponential improvements and surely Ferrari will be lapping the rest of the field by the summer right?

      1 reply →

  • aoeusnth1  4 hours ago

    If you're not going to explain yourself, at least stay on topic. We're talking about exponential growth, so address the points I'm making.