Comment by aspenmartin

This is not my own claim, it’s based on the following analysis from Epoch: https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030

But I forgot how old that article is: it’s 4 orders of magnitude past GPT-4 in terms of total compute which is I think only 3.5 orders of magnitude from where we are today (based on 4.4x scaling/yr)