Comment by alt227
6 days ago
Yep, and even with all those countries with their billions of mobile devices IPv6 use still hasnt even reached 50%.
Pretty much all ISPs hand out both IPv6 and IPv4 addresses to their clients, this is nothing new. When they start only issueing IPv6 IPs is when it would start truly taking off, but it will never get to that point and it will never happen.
It feels like you are constantly moving goal posts here. Your original statement was it will die a slow and quiet death. Are you now saying that this mobile use case will start to switch back to IPv4? It may not kill IPv4, like was initially planned, but it's not going away.
Apologies maybe slow death was the wrong phrase. I did mean that, but only in the non-mobile space. Obviously mobile device networks have made good use of IPv6 and will continue to.
However In another thread it was argued that when IPv4 addresses become very expensive, that could trigger a big shift to IPv6. I agree with this statement and so IMO it is possible that IPv6 may well become ubiquitous in the future.
When usage is increasing rapidly and is literally ~ 50% of the entire planet right now, how is ANY kind of 'death' a useful descriptor?
IPv4 is the one that descriptor belongs on, eh?
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According to APNIC labs, IPv6 adoption in India is ~79% and in China it is ~53%.
Those are the only two countries that could plausibly have billions of mobile devices and they appear to have reached 50%.
India: https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CN?c=IN&x=1&v=1&p=1&r=1&w=...
China: https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CN?c=CN&x=1&v=1&p=1&r=1&w=...
Wow, billions of devices per country and they have still only reached 50%.
Damn, the jealousy (?) is palpable. You know you will have literally zero impact on adoption no matter how snarky you are, right?
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Looks like it’s right at 50% and rapidly increasing.
[https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html]
What exactly are you going on about? 5-10 years for the old devices to be EOL’d, and we’ll likely be at 95%.
Devices maybe, software won't :-\ (We're going to see ever-diminishing pockets of IPv4 around for a loooong time, much like we still see pockets of Cobol.)
pick a lane?
The trend on that graph is slowing, and when we reach criticl mass on the number of mobile devices the graph will be flat.
There is no chance we will be at 95% usage in 5 years or so.
If you like, we can make a wager?