Comment by lxgr
5 days ago
> Over time you will see that graph flatline and peter out as mobile device uage reaches critical mass.
...what? The majority of people access the Internet from their phone, and not only since yesterday either. Are you arguing that this is temporary fad somehow?
I don't think they are arguing for a decrease. I took flatline and peter out to mean stabilize.
That is correct, thankyou for assuming the positive instead of the negative.
I personally believe that at about 60% utilisation the line on the graph will become flat and stay that way.
I am arguing that at some point there wont be any more people without phones, meaning it has reached critical mass and so IPv6 adoption will stall. The number of smartphones in the world will not keep on going up forever.
That would only happen if all of v6's growth is coming from mobile users, no mobile networks are growing/deployed without v6, and also no users are dropping their wired connections.
You can look at the AS breakdowns on APNIC's stats and see that ASs that serve non-mobile customers are getting v6, and that some ASs for mobile users aren't. So no, it won't stall.
Slow down perhaps, but it has to slow down at some point or it'll go above 100%.