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Comment by embedding-shape

3 days ago

> It's funny how many people already see this as a book that is opened and closed on the same day.

What gives you that impression? I haven't seen a single comment that is surprised or wasn't aware of the existing history between the two nations, nor a single comment saying that "Ok, I'm glad/sad that that's over now". What comments specifically are you talking about?

Andrew Yang: "Bringing Maduro to stand trial feels like a win for the region and the world."

Could be!

Could also be really bad.

  • Wonder where that trial would be considering US doesn't recognize ICC

    • > Wonder where that trial would be considering US doesn't recognize ICC

      It has nothing to do with ICC.

      Maduro will be tried in New York and then in Florida. Those are the two places where prosecutors charged him, according to CNN.

  • Law of unintended consequences weighs heavy…

    • There is no unintended consequence. Regime change was the explicit consequence of wars in the Middle East, it was the intended consequence. It went very badly.

      The intended consequence here is to demonstrate to an organized crime group that being part of the government does not mean they are safe. There is no other intention, it has worked.

      3 replies →

  • He used “I feel” language. He didn’t say it is or isn’t. Every small change, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can have profound negative effects in the future. Inaction too can have profound effects. It’s not a useful question imo other than to notice that radical changes are typically favored by progressives, while no change is favored by conservatives. Here we have an inversion of that, which to me is interesting.

Plenty of far-right pages are already celebrating "Mission accomplished!"

Only reason I know, is that if I check out any of the explore pages on IG etc. I get too many of those pages.

  • I'd expect some of those to be made of astroturf, though ...

    • "Far right fascists aren't real. Don't believe your lying eyes. They definitely don't run the fucking government."

      What is this endless desire to claim that the right lacks any agency whatsoever.

> "He [Rubio] anticipates no further action in Venezuela now that Maduro is in US custody," says Senator Lee

  • Yes, he has to telegraph that to the world to try to minimize fears that the US _desires_ a prolonged intervention, regardless of what happens, and regardless of what he actually believes.

    Statements made by politician need not be taken as truthful.

  • Notably trustworthy individual Marco Rubio

    • This statement was contradicted by Trump later in the day: "we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so,"

This forum won't have any obviously partisan comments (that are visible, anyway) so you have to read between the lines. They will have an air of "hah, well, Trump already captured Maduro so what do you think of that liberal?" but instead disguised as something like this[0].

0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46474662

There is plenty of talk in MIGA/MAGA circles that say, in effect, that Venezuelans have now been liberated, there will be no occupation, and other related assumptions / coping mechanisms which they are using to preserve the facade of Trump being anti-war.

  • Reagan something very similar twice and it worked out reasonably(ish) fine.

    Of course Venesuela isn't that similar to Panama or Granada in various ways. Given the massive amounts of internal issues, and insanely high levels of crime/murder removing the government and washing your hands might turn it into something like Haiti...

    Fundamentally on the moral level removing oppressive tyrants like Sadam, Maduro, Gaddafi etc. is the right thing to do. Of course nobody ever figured out how to prevent the situation from getting even worse in the aftermath..

    • Examples of US-facilitated regime change that resulted in lasting stability/democracy are more the exception than the rule, when you look at the track record overall.

    • > Fundamentally on the moral level removing oppressive tyrants like Sadam, Maduro, Gaddafi etc. is the right thing to do.

      If the issue was what was “right” then Trump wouldn’t have cozied up to Putin and abandoned Ukraine, or cozied up to MBS and waved away his murder of a US journalist, and on and on it goes. This administration has zero moral credibility. I don’t know what will happen in Venezuela but we should all be skeptical of fruit from a poisonous tree.

    • I do concede that it is possible the situation will deescalate from here on out, but there is no possible way to be sure of that. Right now the situation is very volatile and could very easily spiral into a huge mess. MAGA people don't want to acknowledge that possibility, because they want to believe Trump is honest and competent.

      5 replies →

    • We should just make them a territory like Guam and instead of assuming we'll fix everything and give it back, we'll just work under the assumption that we're keeping it indefinitely.

      3 replies →

Anyone celebrating has the tone of "we did it, it's over". You wouldn't really celebrate if you thought anything bad comes next.

This is kind of more like a "gasp" moment, even if Maduro sucks.