Comment by phtrivier
3 days ago
If it's to get access to the oil reserve, it is bad news for the shale oil industry in the USA : maybe "drill baby drill" is not feasible any more, and the only way to maintain the level of GDP is to get the oil from somewhere else.
Or it's just banking oil to prepare a war with China.
Thank FSM some AI-first is going to create fusion any time soon to power the robots solving climate change.
Don't expect the administration to make any sense on this topic. The same time they were signing executive orders and blabbing about the US oil industry, they were telling OPEC to lower prices. There's no coherency to be had with them. They simply don't understand the world or trivial economics.
I can steelman this into a “everything is about oil today, and minerals tomorrow”.
* Let’s assume the US is going to stabilise Venezuela quickly enough, that the Venezuelan oil will soon flow around, but only to “selected” countries (basically, …. Anyone but China)
* Let’s assume that the US is going to keep the war in Ukraine dragging on (it’s winter anyway), so that Ukraine can continue bombing the Russian oil infrastructure and
Then the outcome would be:
* USA kept happy because cheap oil will flow from Venezuela to USA, which would help keeping gas price down at the pumps, during an election year
* Europe kept obedient, because it’s not guaranteed to be on the list of “selected” countries that will get the cheap oil. Maybe they’ll even strike a “nice” bargain for Groenland, “or else...”
* Ukraine kept busy fighting ; and the “coalition of winning” kept “unable” to put boots on the ground in Ukraine (which they only want to do at the latest possible time, as the first “coalition” soldier to fall will trigger a domino effect leading to either WW3, or humiliation
* Putin kept annoyed, because they can’t sell cheap oil at all without refineries in Venezuela, and with less and less infrastructure in Russia
* China kept annoyed, because they can’t buy cheap oil, or at least not enough to stockpile for a war against USA
* OPEC kept “happy ish”, I guess, because they can hike up prices for whoever is not on the “selected” list of countries approved by Emperor Trump ?
* Eventually, maybe the USA gets the minerals in Ukraine and Groenland, making them double-happy
Of course I’m missing things, this is pure keyboard geopolitics.
But my point is just that I don’t need USA to be completely “crazy” to justify what they’re doing. Just “more willing to take bold risks” then we have been used to. In a sense, that’s what USA voted for in 2024.
Pray the Emperor may ignore you for long enough.
> * Let’s assume the US is going to stabilise Venezuela quickly enough, that the Venezuelan oil will soon flow around, but only to “selected” countries (basically, …. Anyone but China)
This is a bad assumption. Trump has already promised China their oil on the first day of this nonsense. You don't need to steelman anything. Incompetence does exist in the real world. There's no more reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.
1 reply →