Comment by aglavine
3 days ago
1. Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. A striking difference with people from Ukraine about the invasion. This is the most important thing about this and most people here in comments ignore it.
2. Maduro wasn't even the president. He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people.
3. Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations. And I guess there must be geopolitical reasons. You want China and Russia be there? And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades. You want millions of refugees?
I think one of the best arguments against US interventionalism when it comes to tyrants is just how 'variable' (let's say) the outcomes have been over the years. For every Panama, there's two or three Guatamalas, Irans or most recently Iraq. Generally the hard part is not the removal of the head of state, which for the US is usually pretty quick. It's what beurocratic structures remain functional and whether the power vacuum created brings something better and more robust, or just decades of violence.
I think Sarah Paine on dwarkesh has noted that it tends to go well when the countries already have fairly robust institutions and tends to go badly when they don't
As I'm not a historian, I can only note that it hasn't gone well recently even when multiple successive presidents want it to
In Iraq/Afghanistan, the US dismantled the institutions and tried to build new ones.
In Venezuela, it appears they are simply moving the gun to the head of Maduro's replacement.
> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out.
Based on what? There's a poll already about the US bombing Venezuela and kidnapping Maduro? There's a big difference between removing a leader through a legitimate domestic process and this.
What legitimate domestic process are you envisioning? He lost an election and stayed in power anyway. Any domestic process to remove him would look like a coup.
> He lost an election and stayed in power anyway
Hey, we had a guy who tried to do that too! Thank goodness it didn't work out.
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There have been uprisings that weren't coups in many countries in the world.
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At some point is what you believe, but based on lost elections and literally millions of exiled people.
The word “exiled” implies these people were forced out by the Maduro regime, which is not the case; virtually all of them left the country due to deteriorating economic conditions.
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Venezuelan social media. It is likely dominated though by opposition who left the country.
Please, educate yourself on Maduro and the people of Venezuela. It would be hard to find a less popular leader. A quarter of Venezuelans have fled the country under his regime. 82% of Venezuelans are living in poverty and he has presided over hyperinflation. Exit polls showed him losing the last election in a landslide and he stole the country anyway.
Please educate yourself on the history of US "interventions" in south and central America.
Im shocked that anyone would contest this.
It's completely baseless.
> Based on what?
Well the videos of ~200,000 Venezuelan people partying in the capitol of Argentina is a start. As well as many other pictures and videos of gatherings wherever there is significant Venezuelan refugees.
Have you ever actually talked to a Venezuelan? I mean, come on. One thing that is indisputable is Venezuelans' hatred of Maduro.
My question wasn't about whether he was popular, it was about whether people approve of this specific military action by the US. People can hate their leaders and still not want a foreign country directly replacing them.
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Even with those who are happy that Maduro is gone, I can't imagine they could be happy about the US "running" the country and siphoning off the oil.
Normal Venezuelans saw absolutely zero benefit from whatever oil revenue there was, so even in the worst case scenario, which is not a given, their lives would not be different.
I swear these comments could be copy-pasted from NYT op-eds in 2004 regarding Iraq.
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Well, in which scenario WOULD they see benefit from the oil?
It's always slightly odd that a country with the largest oil reserves in the world doesn't manage to stock up its supermarkets.
I don't want to excuse corruption and cronyism, but surely, the US sanctions at least deserve a mention?
First off, I'll give you credit for at least trying to justify this, it puts you ahead of the administration that can't even bother.
Second off, only #3b above (geopolitics) could possibly count at all. We support dozens of dictators, don't give a darn about their people as long as it's geopolitically useful. So I've been conditioned to assume it's bullshit when someone says "we're doing it for the people there".
Third, and to your #3.. it's Venezuela. No disrespect to the people there but it's not exactly the lynchpin of international relations. Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking? Even if I'm a Henry Kissinger psychopath, this still doesn't make sense.
I am not saying USA did this for the people.
I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this and most people here aren't concerned about this at all. They just want to talk about their pet political point.
About what are the reasons behind this I (and most people commenting here) can only have educated guess, but I wouldn't discard so easily to weaken cartels as a reason. It is the third (Cuba and Nicaragua the others) Country they got to totally control and the most important and they are powerful and organized enough to keep spreading, and they are supported by China.
"I am saying that a wide majority of Venezolans are totally happy about this"
How do you know that?
What I know anecdotically from other persons from latin america is, they are happy for Maduro to be gone, but fear of venezuela becoming a US colony.
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It's not clear what this is really about. Trump doesn't care about the people of the US, much less Venezuela, but there seems to be a widespread consensus that Maduro was a nogoodnik who won't be missed. I have no idea what the mood on the ground really is.
As for drugs, if Trump cared about drugs, he wouldn't pardon so many drug kingpins.
Some say this has to do with asserting control over China's oil imports, but according to https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/fi... and other sources, Venezuela barely makes it into the list of China's top 10 suppliers. So while China is indeed Venezuela's best customer, this argument doesn't seem persuasive unless I'm missing something. Venezuela's next-highest volume customer is the US itself.
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Thanks for engaging in good faith, but you know that China is selling more cars to all of Latin America than us currently, right?
Will this engagement deepen Latin American trust and respect for the US or the opposite? China makes it very clear that they do not give a shit about politics and just want to do good business, they're deepening ties that way. What's our plan? Invade random countries and tell them they better not cross us? How long does that work?
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Increasing the supply of oil will lower its price. Bringing production in Venezuela back online will have this effect. Historically they have produced three million barrels per day, currently that number is closer to one million.
Russia is funding its war in Ukraine with profits on thier oil production. All else being equal, this makes it harder for them to keep doing that. They reportedly spent $6 billion on air defense systems in Venezuela, not for no reason.
Lower oil prices also reduce China’s dependence on Russia for energy. Reducing the incentive for those two countries two cooperate would be in US interests.
Energy is fungible and lower oil prices will help reduce the cost to operate AI data centers. On the margin it will improve their profitability and reduce public backlash about rising electricity prices in the US.
A large portion of the migrant crisis in the US has been driven by Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s gross mismanagement of the country. If the subsequent government can bring prosperity back to the country it also reduces illegal immigration in the US, something the current US administration clearly supports.
Lots of positive things could result here and you don’t have to be a “Kissinger psychopath” to imagine them and hope they materialize.
Ok, but at the cost of American freedoms? We are a country ruled by laws not people. Everything about this operation violated this principle. Are you willing to give up your freedoms in order to create cheap oil so that your scenarios play out? My ancestors didn't die on the battlefield to support such things.
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> Is this really worth it? For some crude which is really high in sulfur and not even that important given fracking?
The US doesn't need their oil. It's about stopping China from getting it.
I am still confused about this. Is the goal for US companies to extract Venezuelan oil, or is it to suppress Venezuelan oil exports altogether? Or are both goals orthogonal?
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> ahead of the administration that can't even bother
It's possible they have tried to justify, but via Fox News and Truth Social. Neither of which you and I read, I presume.
Most people in Crimea supported annexation by Russia. Does that make that one OK?
They didn't actually though.
With such a slam dunk case, it should have been a cakewalk to get UN buy-in, or at the very minimum, Republican-controlled congressional approval.
UN is deadlocked with Russia and China
That is a one-sided list if I can see one, you basically copying and pasting the justification for invasion
They were responding to a comment that asked what the justification for invasion was; it would be weird if it was anything else
You shouldn't be searching for the reasoning only on the official sources. Oil is clearly the biggest variable on this, not Maduro per se
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Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out. This is my main concern. Besides that I only have educated guesses.
Sure, but don't forget the oil on your educated guess. There are other reasons besides the official being said. There's no invasion for justice, there's always an underlying motive for this scale of invasion. Presidents are not kidnapped because of narco traffic
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Okay. I'm an American. My main concern is not having us plunge into WW3. Good luck with your country.
> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations.
What evidence is there of that?
> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA
Do you have sources for this not including the official White House position?
> Most people from Venezuela are happy Maduro is out.
Is there any evidence of this?
Maduro lost elections. 8 millions of exilees can't love him. And I interact daily with exilees. There are already videos if people celebrating in Caracas and all over the World. You can disagree. It is hard to believe narco dictators have too much love from people anyway.
Typically exilees are exiled for a reason
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1) the method the US performed is irrespective of popular sentiment. If we were to buck the rules, I'm not sure if Venezuela would make the top 10 targets.
3) Trump pardoned the Honduras president. The drug smuggling excuse is moot. This is a power grab, as usual. And it came from Trump's mouth. We're no better than Russia if we choose to go with this narrative.
> He was someone who took the country illegally with cartel people.
That's an allegation. We are from a nation of laws where this behavior within it's borders would be in violation of the constitution.
> Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA
Shall we talk about what the CIA has been doing in Venezuela for decades?
> You want China and Russia be there?
The worst form of whataboutism.
> And people from Venezuela were the biggest migration wave in the World last decades.
Is that because they hate Maduro or because they need money?
> You want millions of refugees?
We already have them. Can we /please/ talk about WHY without getting distracted by nonsense drug dealing claims?
This style of commentary is obnoxious and not appropriate for this forum.
Asking questions in good faith is not appropriate?
If difference exist between two people then the quickest way to resolve them is to reveal them. It seems some people prefer to paw around in the dark out of deference. I did not believe this was part of the "hacker ethic."
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Thoroughly answering somebody's questions and refuting their points is not appropriate for this forum?
We should all agree with each other and sing along how lucky Venezuelans are that US, the self proclaimed world police, came to steal their oil and bomb their capital (terrorism/war crime)?
> Why? Maduro was smuggling drugs in USA. Huge operations.
What are you talking about? The war on drugs is just a bad excuse. Trump keeps claiming that Venezuela is responsible for the fentanyl crisis, which is demonstrably wrong.
And if the US administration was so worried about drugs, why did Trump pardon Juan Orlando Hernández, ex-president of Honduras, who had been sentenced to 45 years for drug trafficking? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qewln7912o
If Russia rolled into the United States tomorrow and deposed Trump, _most people_ would "be happy" trump was out.
It's not important at all. I've seen this exact line repeated all over the Internet today, almost like it's not a real sentiment and instead a pre seeded talking point to muddy the waters.
It is amusing to see the consent factory so efficiently spit this shit out though.
"huge operations", wtf are you talking about? get off newsweek.
You have to be pretty naive at this point to believe any of these points are actually real reasons behind this action, esp. 1 or 2.
I never said that. I said that a wide majority of Venezolans are happy and this was barely mentioned in the comments.
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