Comment by Y_Y

https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-...

I don't think that blog says what you think it does.

Tao is using a deliberately limited model to make a probablistic claim, not saying he'd make a 10⁸:1 bet that the election was rigged.

The election may well have been rigged anyway, it doesn't change the fact that Maduro was the one sitting in the president's chair and carrying out the president's duties.