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Comment by ethbr1

7 days ago

The issue with regime change is whether there's enough political cohesion in a country's population after a despot / autocrat is removed.

"The opposition" is rarely a large and representative enough group to effect national power transition. (Btw, thanks for flagging that incorrectly as affect, Apple)

Especially in multi-ethnic states, most cohesive national identities are forged through extremely popular singular leaders.

Unfortunately, those are exactly the same leaders external regime-change initiators are wary of (too independent).

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ethbr1

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delabay  7 days ago

This year's winner of the nobel prize is highly organized and ran a parallel election campaign, which was obviously dismissed by the Maduro regime. There is a slim possibility of a peaceful transition given the democratic efforts underway in Venezuela for many years at this point.

  • estearum  7 days ago

    POTUS just said she's not involved, won't be involved, doesn't have the support necessary to lead. Who does? Unclear. His plan appears to be: "oil companies come in, sell the oil" and I'm seriously not exaggerating.

    • ethbr1  6 days ago

      > His plan appears to be: "oil companies come in, sell the oil"

      In terms of nation-building, it's not the worst plan. See Carville's "It's the economy, stupid."

      Popular support of any government is mostly (a) quality of life & (b) individual freedom. Quality of life is directly correlated to the economy and public finances.

      If someone can quickly boost Venezuelan oil production, and therefore state revenue, then all sorts of social funding programs become feasible.

      The issue with autocracies is that they selectively enrich key supporter groups (internal police, military) at the expense of others (wider population).

      If you can substantially boost public revenue, then you don't have to make a tradeoff -- everyone gets more!

      And there are certainly worse beginnings for new governments.

      (All of this ignoring the flagrant violation of international law, international ramifications vis-a-vis Taiwan, climate change, etc.)

      11 replies →

jacquesm  7 days ago

> Especially in multi-ethnic states, most cohesive national identities are forged through extremely popular singular leaders.

And before you know it you have a genocide on your hands.

  • ethbr1  7 days ago

    Sometimes, but it can go the other way too.

    Napoleon Bonaparte, Toussaint Louverture, Simon Bolivar, Giuseppe Mazzini, Otto von Bismarck, Mustafa Atatürk, Gamal Nasser