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Comment by estearum

6 days ago

Basic question to ask these people: is there evidence that capital punishment is an effective deterrent?

Answer: No

Yes, there is some (if not conclusive) evidence that speedy trial and persistent execution of the worst, most violent offenders reduces violence in the next generation: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10480901/ It turns out killing the worst per cent of a generation's males provides a powerful selection effect. It's by no means the only cause or conclusive but worth considering.

  • The evidence presented:

    The State killed a lot of people between the 14th and 20th centuries and also the homicide rate went down.

    Wow!

    QED

    Good thing there weren't other major confounding changes between errmmm... the longbow and the atomic bomb. Or Dante's Divine Comedy and jazz.

    I'm convinced. Why'd you even put the note "if not conclusive" with evidence this strong?

    • I'd be more shocked if culling a full per cent of men yearly did nothing. Plus a lot died at the scene of crimes or in prison awaiting trial. The question is how much and precisely what. Doing reliable social science is hard enough on current data or interventions. It's very hard with historical data over that sort of time period. However, we get better knowledge by discussing interesting hypotheses and how to study them better. This one is interesting and there may be something to it. It's also at least quasi-testable; someone could fund a study on examining alleles associated with aggression in historical remains.

      Note that Frost and Harpending are pretty conservative in their estimates; they figure only ballpark half the decline could be explained by this.

      2 replies →

I wonder if it increases false accusations and turning in "enemies".

EDIT: This in regards to knowing: "We will quickly try and hang men after three violent crimes."

It doesn't matter to them. What they want is to hurt people (ideally, people from groups they hate). It isn't about building a flourishing society.