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Comment by piloto_ciego

3 days ago

I actually think I understand why almost all the discourse is terrible on the internet. Reddit, HN, whatever. It's because of the reward mechanisms at play.

So...

If you say something is going to suck, and it actually sucks, you look like a genius. If you say something is going to suck, and it actually is ok, nobody cares because things turned out fine. If you say something is going to be good, and it turns out good, people say you're smart. If you say something is going to be good, and it turns out to suck, people say you're a moron.

Because of negative bias and game theory, the most logical take to get "social rewards" is be consistently pessimistic. You'll look "smart" online and the times you miss it will be largely ignored. If the reward you get from interacting online is some sort of social capital, being a pessimist will do better than being an optimist unless you're certain things will turn out good. So people tend to be negative.

Or, as I've heard it stated before, "pessimists get to be right, optimists get to be rich."