Comment by cholantesh
1 day ago
As it happens, genocide scholars disagree with you, and in any case, Gaza's population has not increased.
1 day ago
As it happens, genocide scholars disagree with you, and in any case, Gaza's population has not increased.
It's at least plausible that the population did increase. Estimates of births during the war are larger than the casualty count that Hamas claims.
It'd be nice if Israel would let UN fact-finding missionaries or other independent research teams into Gaza to find out (in addition to not barring and/or killing humanitarian aid workers)
Or even international media outside of proctored propaganda trips. They obviously have learned their lesson since the 1982 invasion.
10 replies →
Gaza population September 2023: 2.3 million. Gaza population September 2025: 2.1 million.
Hamas casualties make up only a portion of palestinian casualties; palestinian casualties make up only a portion of excess deaths; excess deaths make up only a portion of total deaths.
The next census will be in 2027. No one knows the population until then.
It’s not clear that Hamas limits their counts to excess deaths. Even if they intended to, a lot of it is based on a web form, with not much validation besides basic checks that the person exists etc.
As with pretty much any conflict, there's a ton of uncertainly, and people shouldn't be recklessly speculating based on things like WhatsApp chats. Responsible casualty estimates would look more like Ukraine, where for example Zelenskyy said "tens of thousands" (one significant digit) were killed in Mariupol.
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Estimates of birth that rely on the mid-2023 figure and deliberately ignore Israel's systematic dismantling of the health and food systems in Gaza and the drop in fertility levels.
>the casualty count that Hamas claims
The Gaza Health Ministry's count is widely regarded as an underestimate, but mostly by people who don't refer to it with a dogwhistling caveat.
4000 deliveries in march of 2025. 50000 pregnant woman [1]
50,000 births by july of 2024 (starting with october 7th 2023) [2]
you can sum and extrapolate the numbers. you can probably find more numbers about births
[1] https://www.savethechildren.net/news/about-130-children-born...
[2] https://www.savethechildren.net/news/women-self-inducing-lab...
> The Gaza Health Ministry's count is widely regarded as an underestimate
You mean Hamas’ estimate? Why do you think Hamas would underestimate their death toll?
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I wasn’t going to reply but since you’ve been rescued from the flags: which “genocide scholars” think that in increase in population is possible during a genocide?
And yes, it has.
I figured it may have been because you decided to get informed about how genocides are identified by intent and not population deltas. But since you think a projection is the same thing as a census, that obviously isn't the case.
Regarding intent: if Israel intended to kill everyone in Palestine they’d nuke them, and not risk the lives of their children trying to ensure noncombatants are out of harms way in operations against Hamas.