Comment by markusde
2 days ago
> it's really not clear to me that humans would be a valuable component in knowledge work for much longer.
To me, this sounds like when we first went to the moon, and people were sure we'd be on Mars be the end of the 80's.
> Even ARC-AGI-2 is now at over 50%.
Any measure of "are we close to AGI" is as scientifically meaningful as "are we close to a warp drive" because all anyone has to go on at this point is pure speculation. In my opinion, we should all strive to be better scientists and think more carefully about what an observation is supposed to mean before we tout it as evidence. Despite the name, there is no evidence that ARC-AGI tests for AGI.
> To me, this sounds like when we first went to the moon, and people were sure we'd be on Mars be the end of the 80's.
Unlike space colonisation, there are immediate economic rewards from producing even modest improvements in AI models. As such, we should expect much faster progress in AI than space colonisation.
But it could still turn out the same way, for all we know. I just think that's unlikely.
The minerals in the asteroid belt are estimated to be worth in the $100s of quintillions. I would say that’s a decent economic incentive to develop space exploration (not necessarily colonization, but it may make it easier).