Comment by scythe
12 hours ago
I think this is a major unforced error by the USG, of course we have seen plenty of those of late. There may be Israeli, American or other intelligence agencies present. But history has shown that spies can't just foment a revolution out of thin air. The Americans' first attempt at a coup in Chile, in 1970, failed. It was only after three years of US machinations and missteps by the Allende administration that Pinochet arose — Pinochet was given his fateful promotion by Allende himself! And that was in a "friendly" country where the US had many connections.
Iranians wouldn't be on the streets right now if the government had listened to its own water engineers over the years. But the new political culture in our government is more interested in braggadocio than achieving real change. I doubt that if the protesters succeed that Iran would become friendly to the West. At the same time there is probably a not too contrived worry among the Iranians that Netanyahu will seize the opportunity to attack if a political transition occurs. Bluster like this only hurts the cause.
I have to imagine the protests would stop immediately if Iran is attacked by Israel or the U.S. You can be angry at your government while not welcoming bombers.
Ordinarily I'd have faith the governments were smart enough to know better, but at this point I've lost hope.
I think that depends very much on targeting discipline. If the bombs are surgically striking key regime figures and sites, hampering C2, reducing the regime's total conspiratorial power, and increasing latency in the regime's OODA loop, I imagine protestors would welcome the help. The mullahs have taken the people of Iran hostage and their goons are out on the streets killing protestors. Israel or the US metaphorically sniping the guns out of their hands would be a judicious and IMO proper application of military force.
On the other hand, if the bombing is indiscriminate, or has an unacceptable error rate (oopsie, those weren't IRGC command posts, they were kindergartens), then I would expect a rally-round-the-flag effect. If the sniper misses and hits the hostage, well... people are going to be unhappy.