Comment by caminante
3 days ago
That's not true given FDA more or less requires rodent testing in pre-human trials.
You didn't know that?
3 days ago
That's not true given FDA more or less requires rodent testing in pre-human trials.
You didn't know that?
They are a required step along the way to human trials.
But over 90% of drugs that show promise in rodents flunk out in human trials.
Something working in rodents is an indicator that it might be worth doing testing to see if it works and is safe for humans. But if you bet against it panning out, you'd still be right the overwhelming majority of the time.
The only thing you can project from rodent trial success is that it is worth continuing to study. It should not guide any human usage at that point.
OK.
I now understand you were being sensational with your prior language:
> Projecting human outcomes from rodent studies is 100% quackery
No. It's still absurd to project human outcomes from rodent studies.
90-95% of them don't pan out! And that's of the ones that progress from rodent studies to human trials. The actual number is even higher, but more difficult to track.
Surely you can see how it would be absurd to extrapolate success from something with, at best, a 5-10% chance of panning out? And panning out as in being approved - lots of things that are approved have less than 100% success rate, particularly in this area.