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Comment by sieep

1 month ago

I just can't see it happening. The United States benefits from decades of compounding advantages compared to the EU: elite research universities, talent pipelines, mature capital markets, and tons of integrated industries (fintech).

This is obvious in the recent AI race. EU-headquartered companies remain rare compared to their US/Chinese counterparts.

All true, but incomplete: you are not discounting these advantages with plain old 'industrial inertia'.

Some stuff just went goes to the USA, because it always went to the USA - even though the original advantages are long gone.

Screw with it enough and the users (the world) just route around the damage.

As the UK can attest after Brexit.

AI race is a very good example, because Microsoft customers in the EU pay significantly increased Microsoft license fees so that Microsoft can give that money to OpenAI. Without Microsoft having non-US customers as a cash cow the AI valuations would not be anywhere where they are today. In return non-US Microsoft customers get a useless copilot slapped into all UIs and have to throw away all their computers and buy new ones just because of Windows 11 software update.

The other things you list are weak arguments:

  - With mature capital markets you mean they plan to dismantle the Fed autonomy? Did you see the powell video?
  - Concerning "elite research universities": are you aware that they significantly cut research funding for US universities, prompting many researchers to move outside the country?
  - With talent pipeline do you mean top graduates from EU and other non-US regions who bring innovation to US tech companies?

I think the delusion among US tech workers is immense. The moat is not that big. If other countries stop sharing your idea of copyright and software patents there is not much you can do.

The problem: you just listed all of the things under attack by the current administration.