Comment by koolba
2 days ago
> A billionaire congressional candidate can’t just send a check to Quinnipiac University and suddenly find himself as the polling front-runner, but he can place enormous Polymarket bets on himself that move the odds in his favor.
Maybe not with a specific pollster depending on their scruples, but you can definitely pay to be part of the poll. And that’s the first step to getting any stats whatsoever.
It doesn't really work, up until a few weeks before the NYC mayoral election. Polymarket had Andrew Cuomo winning by double digits.
It's a trash platform.
There are much better ways to tell if a prediction market is well calibrated than a single anecdote.
And if it works so poorly, there's a lot of easy money to be made.
But this isn't a prediction market... those are highly regulated. This is just making money off of insider info. So yeah, not only does it work poorly it's entire reason for existing is to help people get richer while fucking over others.