Comment by dghlsakjg
2 days ago
You forget that people are not necessarily doing this for rational reasons.
Some people do it for for entertainment, some people are gambling addicts, some people think they have a strong grasp or inside knowledge when they don't.
It is, at root, a casino. Apply your lens to any casino game, and it shouldn't exist (some very narrow exceptions apply in the casino).
It is not a casino in the sense that in the casino you are better against the house. Polymarket is basically an arbiter with financial infrastructure.
Not all casino games are played against the house. The best analogy would be a game like poker, where the house takes a small percent of every pot (the rake). Other than that, money changes hands between players. The game has an element of randomness and luck but there is also a large element of skill. Players have a wide range motivations and skill levels, from casual players and thrill-seekers to professional players.
For the purposes of understanding the behavior of those laying down bets, it is an irrelevant distinction.
I don’t know how this works but assuredly polymarket takes a cut, right? So if we were betting on a coin toss on polymarket, the payout would be less than 2 for both heads ands tail after accounting for polymarket’s fee. That’s not different from the rake for a poker game in a casino?