Comment by kbos87
2 days ago
...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work
2 days ago
...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work
Which makes the prediction market more accurate.
Until the tail starts wagging the dog.
As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.
See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.
"You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"
Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.