Comment by gizzlon
1 day ago
Polymarked has a 3% chance of Jesus returning _this year_ : https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...
Good example to show when people tout how great these are at predicting.
1 day ago
Polymarked has a 3% chance of Jesus returning _this year_ : https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...
Good example to show when people tout how great these are at predicting.
The Jesus market is really a bet on interest rates. You should bet that Jesus will return if interest rates are >3% because "No" holders will sell to put their money in the bank instead.
You are probably right, but I believe it's a failure of prediction whatever the reason is.
It is, but it's a well known systemic error that has to do with the rate of return from certain accuracy improving predictions falling below the rate of return of anything else.
You can learn a lot more about whether these markets are accurate at this great resource:
https://calibration.city/introduction