Comment by hbarka

> Optimism tax: the losses are driven by a preference for "yes" outcomes. buying "yes" at 1 cent has a -41% expected value. buying "no" at 1 cent has a +23% expected value.

This is interesting and makes a statement about positive or negative orientation in human psychology. Also, couldn’t the bets just be worded in the double negative instead of the affirmative to influence the optimism bet?