Comment by misja111

I don't follow this part, can somebody maybe explain?

> Yet on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, traders have wagered vast sums on longshot contracts with historical returns as low as 43 cents on the dollar.

On prediction markets traders can bet both sides. E.g. on Polymarket I can currently bet that Greenland will be acquired by USA before 2027 and get 4:1 odds: or I can bet that this doesn't happen, and give 4:1 odds. If these odds are off, doesn't this mean that one side gets a bad return on investment, however the other side gets an equally good return?

On balance the average return on investment by traders should just be 100 cents minus the margin of the prediction market, which tends to be only a few percent.