Comment by mminer237
3 hours ago
Well, assuming they're paid out truthfully, it does incentivize learning the actual truth. Unless you're saying that the oracles are falling for fake news? Or you're saying people are intentionally buying the wrong option, getting other people to believe it, and then selling before it becomes worthless? That seems harder than just buying the right option unless you already have a ton of influence to burn.
Closer to the second than the first, but traders probably have less agency than the way you're putting it. They benefit from misdirection, but they don't need to be the ones doing the misdirection. Their special skill is recognizing the effect of misdirection (or simply how events unfold) sooner and more accurately than others.